Sean B. Fitzgerald It doesn’t go something like this, it goes exactly like this.

2009 NBA Playoffs Preview

After having a big bowl of delicious Lucky Charms this morning, I have decided to write my NBA Playoffs Preview. It's something I have been mulling over ever since the Knicks were eliminated from playoff contention (about three weeks ago). From what I've heard from the talking heads, sports radio, and the blogs, is that however the playoffs themselves shake out, the inevitable finals matchup will be between the Lakers and Cavaliers. Kobe v. Lebron. The Old v. The New. Ecks v. Sever. Anyway, after watching about 1000 NBA games this season, I wouldn't argue with that premonition. And now with Garnett out for the entire postseason possibly, the Lakers and the Cavs are the most complete teams.

This doesn't bode well for my Knicks though. If Lebron wins a championship for Cleveland, there is no way he will leave after next season, maximum contract or not. Because if he leaves for the money and the "marketing leverage" in New York, he can kiss any more championships goodbye. Right now, the Knicks have a worse supporting cast for James than Cleveland does. Nate Robinson and David Lee are nice players, but on any other team they are complementary. Almost negligible. Lebron may think he could broaden his image and become a global icon in New York, but look at the age we live in today. Where you are has nothing to do with exposure anymore. Winning does. Nike knew that when they signed him to a $90 million deal when he was drafted. If he starts to hoist trophies over his head, this New York dream will be long forgotten.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat (Atlanta in 7)
Best series of the first round. Last season, the Hawks took the Celtics to game 7 in the first round of the playoffs. As exciting as that was, it resulted in nothing tangible. There was no "win" under their belt. They'll be looking to change that against the Heat. For me it boils down to who has a more cohesive starting five, with the advantage going to Atlanta. They've been through this before and with 47 wins in the regular season, they proved it was no fluke. Obviously, Dwyane Wade is the X factor. For 82 games this season, he took Mario Chalmers, Michael Beasley, and the rest of the team on his back and carried them to 43 wins. I would like to believe he could do it for a seven game series, but I just don't see it. With the amount of youth on that team (not to mention a first year coach who isn't necessarily good), the Hawks can just double or triple team Wade and shut them down.

Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls (Celtics in 6)
In terms of an upset in these playoffs, all directions are pointing to Chicago. An insanely talented rookie point guard who has game-takeoverability (Bilas'ism), strong play down the stretch (18-11 since the All-Star Break), savvy trades for veteran players (Brad Miller, John Salmons), and Garnett out. I could easily pick the Bulls in seven. But there is no way that the Celtics are going to roll over after losing Garnett. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will have none of that. And this pains me to type it. But it's true. Even without KG, they still can suffocate teams defensively. However, if Boston wants to have any sort of run in these playoffs, Rondo will need to play out of his mind for extended periods of time. If he does, we can see them back in the Finals.

Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Magic in 5)
Boring. This series is essentially a "wait out the clock" situation. Philadelphia matches up horribly with Orlando. And quite frankly (Stephen A.'ed), no one does. No team in the playoffs has three players like Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu. On paper, the Magic should wipe the floor with the Eastern Conference and have a preemptive date with the Lakers in the Finals. Even with 53 wins in 2008-2009 they haven't played to their potential. Especially Howard. It's scary to think that he might not yet know how big he really is. A player of his size and skill should touch the ball at least once every time down court, but that's not the case. He seems to shy away from the spotlight in crunch time. That's either unselfishness or fear. If I am the Magic, I am praying it isn't the latter.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons (Cavaliers in 4)
Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Exhibit C
Exhibit D
No further questions.

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets (New Orleans in 7)
As I get further and further into this preview, I realize that you don't need to know much about basketball to predict series. Very rarely is there an upset and the team that played better in the regular season often wins. It's nothing like baseball. Baseball relies heavily on which team is hot coming into the playoffs. In basketball, teams who have success on the defensive end of the ball are able to combat any sort of run from the opposing team. Ironically, that is also the reasoning to why I am predicting the Hornets to upset the Nuggets in seven games. Bottomline, Denver plays little to no defense and New Orleans is top five in the NBA in opponent scoring. Chris Paul in 2009.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks (Spurs in 6)
One last hurrah for the Spurs? I think so. The Ginobili injury took the decisive blow to their Finals hopes, but I think there is enough in the tank of Parker and Duncan to muster up at least one more series win. And if Jason Kidd guards Parker in the series, consider that prediction signed, sealed, and delivered. This season Tony Parker averaged 31.3 ppg, 7.3 APG, and 52% shooting when Kidd defended him (Thank you Bill Simmons). Also, let's go through some of Roger Mason Jr.'s game-winning shots this season: Vs. Lakers, At Clippers, At Suns, At Celtics. He is good.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz (Lakers in 5)
I can't imagine how much better the Lakers would be if they had a lick of team-cohesiveness and chemistry. It's no question that every player on Los Angeles is unbelievably talented, but they play with eachother, not for eachother. And I think they is an enormous difference. The bottomline is: They are going to be in the finals in June, but they are not going to win it. That fatal flaw will rear it's ugly head when at some point during the series, they will be down by 5 with 3 minutes left. Kobe will take ill-advised shots thinking he needs to take over, he will get frustrated with his teammates for showing lack of heart, and they will lose. It's 2008 all over again.

Portland Trailblazers vs. Houston Rockets (Trailblazers in 7)
Who doesn't want to see Portland make a playoff run? They could be the most likeable team ever. Which is a stark contrast from the "Jailblazers" era of 2000 and 2001. But honestly, look at this team. Name a player on Portland you wouldn't want to be friends with. Even Rudy Fernandez would be a riot to hang out with. Their fast, young, talented, and even nice. Not to mention, they could have the best fans in the sport. I wish I was a Trailblazer fan. It is like a party every night.